Trump says Iran war deal to be announced 'shortly' as fate of Strait of Hormuz hangs in balance – What we know so far

President Trump said Saturday that a deal to end the war with Iran would be announced "shortly" and that the "final aspects" are currently being negotiated. The Iran Peace deal is designed to end the war, gradually open the Strait of Hormuz, and launch at least 30 days of more detailed negotiations on issues including Iran's nuclear program.

Diplomatic efforts to end the US-Israel war against Iran edged towards a crossroads on Saturday, as President Donald Trump acknowledged that a final agreement remained uncertain, telling Axios he was weighing whether to conclude a peace deal or resume hostilities.

The fate of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply passes, sits at the heart of the negotiations.

However, Trump told Axios the outcome was a "solid 50/50" as to whether he would be able to make a "good" deal or else "blow them to kingdom come." He added: "I think one of two things will happen: either I hit them harder than they have ever been hit, or we are going to sign a deal that is good."

He met with senior advisers Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, along with Vice President JD Vance, later on Saturday to review Iran's latest response.

Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson confirmed that the two sides were in the "final stage of discussions," saying the MOU would address a gradual reopening of the strait, a lifting of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, and the release of frozen Iranian funds. A 30-to-60-day negotiation period on a more comprehensive agreement would follow.

Three senior Iranian officials told The New York Times that the agreement would halt fighting in both Iran and Lebanon, and could free approximately $25 billion in Iranian assets held overseas.

A regional official with direct knowledge of the Pakistan-led mediation efforts told the Associated Press that while progress had been made, "last-minute disputes" could still unravel the effort.

Trump separately told Axios he would only accept a deal that addresses uranium enrichment and the fate of Iran's existing stockpile, yet analysts and officials have noted that those issues are unlikely to be resolved under any preliminary MOU. Iran has sought to defer nuclear negotiations to a later stage.

Regional mediators including Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have been engaged in intensive shuttle diplomacy over the past 24 hours, holding numerous calls with both Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Witkoff. Trump was also expected to hold a conference call with Gulf leaders, with the leaders of Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey among the anticipated participants.

Senator Lindsey Graham told Axios that there was a divergence of views among regional leaders and White House advisers. "Some leaders in the region have urged President Trump to strike Iran to weaken the regime and get a deal on better terms," he said, while others argued the deal currently available should be accepted, warning that "if Iran is attacked it has the ability to destroy substantial Gulf oil operations."

Graham expressed scepticism about warnings that Iran could not be deterred in the strait even after a major military campaign. "Count me as a strong skeptic that Iran can't be prevented from terrorizing the Strait of Hormuz and that we can't defend vital interests in the region after massive attacks against Iran — if they have been truly obliterated they shouldn't be able to do either," he said. "Time will tell. I am hoping for a good outcome still."

Trump rejected the suggestion that Netanyahu was "worried" about the terms being negotiated, though he acknowledged that "some people would much rather have a deal and others would rather resume the war."