US-China G2, nukes on the table: Is Trump heralding Cold War-like bipolarity?

The self-styled dealmaker once again made it clear that he has little regard for multilateral diplomacy, flying back to the US after meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping at Busan airport in South Korea, without attending the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit.

Well, for him, the business was done. He got what he came for—Xi Jinping’s commitment to suspend export controls on rare earths.

China’s near-monopoly on critical minerals has crippled global industries ranging from automobiles and electronics to clean energy. So, despite all the bluster, Trump did not have a strong hand to play against Beijing. And it proved that a bully can be bullied.

As a result, Washington has reduced tariffs on Chinese imports to just 47%, down from peak rates that reached as high as 145% on certain categories of goods at the height of the US-China trade war.

Mind you, India still faces 50% US export duties.

Meanwhile, Trump was so impressed with the negotiations that he rated his first in-person meeting with his Chinese counterpart in over six years “12 on a scale of one to 10".

Only time will tell whether it was praise well earned, as an official trade deal remains a distant prospect. Still, there is a promise of a visit to China by Trump and a reciprocal visit by Xi to the US.

For India and other US allies, the message is clear: America can manage China on its own, and so should they.

That could mean the Quad, which brings together the US, India, Australia, and Japan, no longer holds the same significance for Washington as it once did. It’s telling that Trump met Xi on the sidelines of the APEC summit, which puts the spotlight on the Asia-Pacific rather than the Indo-Pacific.

However, it would serve Trump better to remember that Beijing, under Xi, aspires to become the world’s leading superpower, and by stepping away from multilateral platforms, the US President is only enabling that ambition.

Trump revives the spectre of a new nuclear standoff

Just ahead of his meeting with Xi, Trump announced that he had given the Pentagon orders to resume testing nuclear weapons. If the US follows through, it will be the first tests in 30 years.

Although the trigger or aim is not yet clear, the fact that it came before the meeting speaks volumes.

China’s military is rapidly modernizing, and its navy has already surpassed the US in the number of ships—though the US fleet still outweighs its competitors in total tonnage.

Russia is also said to have successfully tested a nuclear-powered and nuclear-capable cruise missile and another nuclear torpedo recently.

The comments also come before the last major nuclear arms-control treaty between the US and Russia, known as New START, expires in little over two months. The treaty limited each to 1,550 deployed strategic weapons.

But the key question is: What happens to his “Peace President" title? Wouldn't resurrecting the nuclear arms race temper his Nobel Peace Prize prospects?

Meanwhile, the Gaza peace plan is in tatters

Earlier this week, Israel resumed strikes on several targets in Gaza, killing 104 people in the region, in its response to “ceasefire violations by Hamas".

Israel's defence minister Israel Katz accused Hamas of an attack in Gaza that killed an Israeli soldier. He also accused the group of breaching the terms of the US brokered peace deal on returning the deceased hostages' bodies.

Hamas said it had “no connection" to the attack and that it was Israel that was trying to undermine the deal.

A brief statement from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said he had ordered the IDF to carry out “forceful strikes" on Gaza but did not specify reasons.

On his part, Trump said “nothing" would jeopardize the ceasefire, adding that Israel should “hit back" when its soldiers were targeted. The term so near yet so far comes to mind.

Trump praises Japan's first woman prime minister

"Everything I know from Shinzo and others, you will be one of the great prime ministers," Trump said after meeting the new Japanese PM, Sanae Takaichi, adding that becoming Japan's first female PM was “a big deal".

Interestingly, Takaichi, a protege of former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe, who was assassinated in 2022, has pledged to nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Perhaps, to him—who called Italian PM Giorgia Meloni “a beautiful woman"—politics may have never been this smooth.

Meanwhile, both governments announced a slate of projects in energy, artificial intelligence, and critical minerals, with Japanese companies eyeing investments of up to $400 billion in the US.

Tokyo had earlier promised $550 billion in strategic US investments, loans, and guarantees as part of a deal to win relief from the US President’s punishing import tariffs.

Also, the two nations signed a pact on critical rare earths aimed at countering China’s dominance in key electronic components.

Geopolitics at its finest?

Elizabeth Roche is an associate professor at O.P. Jindal Global University, Haryana.