War Next Door: Can Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions Spill Over Into India?

Last Updated:March 17, 2026, 16:40 IST

While the world’s attention is often pulled towards West Asia, New Delhi is watching the Durand Line with unprecedented intensity

In the rapidly shifting sands of South Asian geopolitics, the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan has transformed into a high-stakes theatre of war. Since February 2026, when Islamabad declared “open war" against the Taliban, the region has been rocked by relentless air strikes and artillery barrages. While the world’s attention is often pulled towards West Asia, New Delhi is watching the Durand Line with unprecedented intensity. For India, this isn’t just a distant skirmish; it is a critical security development that directly impacts its western frontier, its energy ambitions, and its long-standing battle against cross-border terrorism.

The Collapse of the Strategic Depth Myth

For decades, the Pakistani military establishment sought “strategic depth" in Afghanistan, hoping to install a friendly regime in Kabul that would serve as a backyard in any conflict with India. The 2026 conflict marks the final, violent burial of that policy. The Taliban, once seen as an Islamabad proxy, has emerged as a fiercely independent sovereign actor that refuses to recognise the British-drawn Durand Line.

This fallout has created a significant strategic opening for New Delhi. By condemning Pakistani air strikes on civilian targets—most notably the deadly March 16 strike on a Kabul addiction treatment centre—India has positioned itself as a defender of Afghan sovereignty. This shift allows India to recalibrate its relationship with Kabul, moving from total estrangement to a pragmatic, functional engagement that sidelines Pakistan’s influence in its own neighbourhood.

The TTP Factor and Kashmir Security

At the heart of the current war is the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group that Islamabad accuses the Afghan Taliban of sheltering. For India, the TTP’s surge is a double-edged sword. On one hand, the internal security challenges facing Pakistan divert its military resources away from the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir. On the other hand, a destabilised, war-torn region often becomes a breeding ground for radical elements that could eventually spill over into Indian territory.

New Delhi’s primary concern is ensuring that the vacuum created by the Af-Pak conflict does not allow groups like ISIS-K or al-Qaeda to resurge. By maintaining a technical mission in Kabul and increasing humanitarian aid to Rs 150 crore in the 2026-27 Budget, India is attempting to ensure that the Afghan state remains viable enough to prevent its soil from being used by terrorists targeting Indian interests.

Energy Security and the Chabahar Pivot

The conflict carries massive economic implications, particularly regarding India’s quest for energy security. With the West Asia crisis already threatening global oil supplies, India has been forced to look closer to home. The volatility along the Afghan-Pakistan border has made the development of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Chabahar Port in Iran more critical than ever.

India’s bypass of Pakistan through the Chabahar Port allows it to trade directly with Afghanistan and Central Asia, effectively neutralising Islamabad’s ability to block Indian land access. If the Af-Pak war escalates further, the security of these trade routes becomes paramount. India is currently working with regional partners to ensure that the “energy bridge" from Central Asia remains insulated from the kinetic heat of the Durand Line.

The China-Pakistan Axis

Finally, India is closely monitoring China’s role in this burgeoning war. Beijing has historically backed Pakistan with military hardware, including advanced fighter jets used in recent operations. For India, the Af-Pak conflict is the first real-world test of the “Western tip of China’s military spear".

Observers say that as Pakistan seeks Chinese intervention to mediate or provide tactical support, India must ensure its “strategic autonomy" remains intact. By building a closer rapport with the Taliban administration without granting formal recognition, New Delhi is successfully countering the Beijing-Islamabad axis, ensuring that it remains a central, indispensable player in the future of the Eurasian landmass.

News world War Next Door: Can Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions Spill Over Into India?

Read More