We need more dads than duds to address the global scarcity of babies

The role of men and societal values in declining fertility was among them. Nobel laureate Claudia Goldin told the Fed’s conference that it’s important not to overlook tradition when explaining low fertility, and when governments canvas ways to revive it.

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There are reasons to pay attention. In most of the world, birth rates are dwindling. In developed countries and some major emerging markets, the total fertility rate, roughly defined as the number of children a woman will bear in her lifetime, has slipped below 2.1. That’s generally recognized as the level required for a population to replenish itself. South Korea, Japan and China get headlines, though many UN members are below this marker.

There are implications for prices, budgets, safety nets and GDP. Those already born are living longer, while the state has limited scope to raise fertility. Incentives for couples haven’t produced sizeable gains. Singapore had hoped for an increase last year, but its TFR remained just below 1. Ultimately, couples make their own decisions. Those choices will certainly be influenced by the cost of bringing up children. But the priorities of would-be parents and individuals who might forgo families for an array of reasons matter too.

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Fathers are an important part of the puzzle, according to Goldin’s paper. Yes, compared with a couple of generations ago, women have far more choice and vastly better access to education. They aren’t forgoing the professional aspirations they have worked so hard for. But that alone doesn’t explain fewer kids. The desires of males and females have become mismatched, according to Goldin. Men benefit more from upholding traditions than women; when chances are slim that men will ditch such conventions, women will be inclined to skip or postpone motherhood.

Women need to be assured they can reap the rewards of having a career and raising children. “The more men can credibly signal that they will be dependable ‘dads’ and not disappointing ‘duds,’ the higher will be the birth rate," Goldin wrote. “Therefore, even though the major factor in the decline of fertility is increased women’s agency, the real downside or obstacle is the need for husbands and fathers to reliably demonstrate their commitment." 

The challenge may be more pronounced in emerging markets. Swift industrialization coupled with healthcare and educational advances made East Asia, for example, prosperous. Socio-cultural norms haven’t evolved as quickly. Births out of wedlock in Korea, which has the lowest TFR in the world, are frowned upon. Single mothers are considered taboo in Japan. In Malaysia, which is on track to morph into an aged society, unwed mothers are stigmatized—and sometimes even flogged. Prospective buyers of Singapore’s Housing & Development Board flats must typically be married (or  engaged), or be at least 35.

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“If the countries that had rapid advances in economic development maintained various marriage and conjugal traditions... the fraction of childless women would increase with fertility declines," Goldin said. “The rationale is if the age at marriage increases with economic development as women seek more education and employment opportunities, but [it] is difficult or impossible to have a child outside marriage, then childlessness will increase."

The ageing society, a byproduct of retreating fertility, presents many challenges. AI can do some lifting and there is clearly a role for immigration. But this can be delicate. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who is counting on a labour shortage to put deflation behind the country, acknowledged the role played by foreign workers even as politics around it can be combustible. While they made up just 3% of Japan’s workforce, they accounted for more than half its growth from 2023 to 2024. 

Diminishing fertility doesn’t have many cheerleaders, certainly compared with the 1970s, when constraints on population growth were seen as a good thing. Now, the chatter is about a bust. Chad Jones of Stanford Graduate School of Business worries about unintended consequences of population decline: Stagnating living standards and a dearth of research and ideas among them. The world’s headcount will peak at around 10.3 billion in the 2080s, based on UN projections, and then start to head down. Government incentives and rules are unlikely to profoundly alter the trajectory. The real work may be to take a good hard look at ourselves. ©Bloomberg

The author is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asian economies.