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Exit polls in West Bengal's 2021 elections significantly underestimated the support for Mamata Banerjee’s TMC. The BJP was also overestimated.
West Bengal Exit Poll: How Mamata Banerjee’s TMC proved every projection wrong in 2021 (Photo by Dibyangshu SARKAR/AFP)(Dibyangshu SARKAR/AFP)Exit polls are projections, not predictions. The 2021 West Bengal election proved that more decisively than almost any state election in recent Indian history.
Every major polling agency underestimated Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress by a significant margin. Most overestimated the BJP. The gap between projection and reality was, in several cases, enormous.
What the Exit Polls Said
Nine agencies released exit poll projections for 292 of the 294 seats in the West Bengal assembly. That year, the remaining 2 seats had their elections on 30 September.
Most gave TMC a clear lead, but none came close to the actual result. Times Now-C Voter projected 158 seats for TMC and 115 for BJP.
ABP-C Voter gave TMC 152-164 seats and BJP 109-121. ETG-Research projected TMC at 164-174 and BJP at 105-115. POLLSTRAT gave TMC 142-152 seats against the BJP's 125-135.
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Two agencies stood out for being particularly off the mark. India Today-Axis My India projected a near-tie, giving TMC 130-156 and BJP 134-160.
India News-Jan Ki Baat went furthest in BJP's favour, projecting 162-185 seats, enough for a majority. News24-Today's Chanakya was the most bullish on TMC, projecting 180 seats for the TMC against the BJP's 108.
What Actually Happened
TMC won 213 of 292 seats, a landslide. BJP won just 77. An independent candidate won one seat. Rashtriya Secular Majlis Party won one seat. The Left-INC-ISF alliance, the Jot, was wiped out entirely.
Not a single exit poll came close to TMC's actual tally. Every agency undershot TMC by several seats. The most dramatic miss was India News-Jan Ki Baat, which projected the BJP winning up to 185 seats. BJP won 77.
Why Exit Polls Fail
Exit polls rely on voters accurately reporting how they voted immediately after casting their ballot. In West Bengal, that assumption carries particular risk. Voters in politically-sensitive areas may not reveal their true vote.
Fear of consequences plays a big part in distorting the data. The 2021 results suggested that TMC's ground-level support was significantly undercounted across all models.
Bengal Elections Exit Polls 2026
Exit poll results for the current round of elections will be released after 6:30 PM today. The Election Commission of India banned exit polls under Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951. The ban came into effect from 7 AM on 9 April. It remains in force until 6:30 PM on 29 April 2026.
The West Bengal Election 2026 Phase 2 is underway. Till 9 AM, the voter percentage stands at 18.39. Purba Bardhaman district reported the highest voter turnout at 20.86%, followed by Hooghly at 20.16%.
Meanwhile, TV channels, radio networks and cable operators have been banned from broadcasting any exit poll data during this period. Opinion polls and any content that could influence voter behaviour are also banned.
Violation of Section 126A carries imprisonment of up to two years, a fine, or both. Results from multiple polling agencies are expected to be released simultaneously after the ban lifts this evening.
The 2021 West Bengal result is a timely reminder. Exit polls are tools, not verdicts. As Mamata Banerjee proved last time, the only poll that truly matters is the one that actually happens.
About the Author
Sounak Mukhopadhyay
Sounak Mukhopadhyay covers trending news, sports and entertainment for LiveMint. His reporting focuses on fast-moving stories, box office performance, digital culture and major cricket developments. He combines real-time updates with clear context for everyday readers. <br><br> Sounak brings newsroom experience across breaking news, explainers and long-form features. He has a strong emphasis on accuracy, verification and responsible storytelling. His work tracks audience behaviour, celebrity influence and the business of sport and cinema. He helps readers understand why a story matters beyond the headline. <br><br> Sounak has contributed to widely read digital publications. He continues to build a body of journalism shaped by consistency, speed and editorial clarity. He is particularly interested in the intersection of media, popular culture and public conversation in contemporary India. <br><br> At LiveMint, he writes daily coverage as well as analytical pieces that interpret numbers, trends and cultural moments in accessible language. His approach prioritises factual depth, balanced framing and reader trust. The reporting aligns with modern newsroom standards of transparency and credibility. <br><br> Outside daily reporting, he explores storytelling across formats including podcasts, filmmaking and narrative non-fiction. Through his journalism, Sounak aims to document the rhythms of modern entertainment and sports while maintaining rigorous editorial integrity. <br><br> Sounak continues to develop audience-focused journalism that connects speed with substance in a rapidly-changing information environment. His work seeks clarity, trust and lasting public value in every story he reports.
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