Why Census 2027 isn’t just another headcount—it could be a turning point for Indian democracy

The coincidence is apt, even if unintended. If economic growth is about prosperity, the census is about people. And since the aim of any democracy is to ensure that prosperity reaches all its people, we need to know more about the latter.

It’s here that Census 2027 is expected to play a vital role.

For starters, though our population has overtaken China’s, according to Worldometer, a website that offers real-time statistics, our headcount is likely to conclusively show that India is now the world’s most populous country.

But that’s not all. As the 16th of a decadal series that goes as far back as 1872, its report will serve as our biggest source of primary data at the grassroots level. It will offer information on a host of parameters, such as housing, religion, language, literacy, business activity, migration, fertility and so on that can be sliced for analysis by village, town and ward.

This will aid in planning, policy formulation and public administration so that welfare schemes reach their intended beneficiaries.

Notably, this will be our first digital census, to be conducted by around 3 million enumerators. Data will be collected using mobile apps that will be available for both Android and iOS phones. There will also be an option for self-enumeration within 15 days just before a 30-day span scheduled for house-listing operations.

In another first, Census 2027 will digitally capture caste data. The last comprehensive caste count was conducted back in 1931 under the British Raj.

Census 2027 is important for another big reason. In accordance with a cabinet decision of the Vajpayee government, its data will determine how ‘delimitation’ is done—the process, that is, of fixing the number of seats in the Lok Sabha and state legislative assemblies after the constituencies they represent are redrawn.

Given that southern and western states have had greater success in population control vis-à-vis states in north, central and eastern India, any remake of our representation map by the latest headcount is bound to skew political power in favour of the latter states.

Unsurprisingly, southern states have been particularly vocal in opposing such an exercise. They argue that it will effectively penalize states which reduced their birth rates and tilt the composition of Parliament against the spirit of federalism.

However, the situation we have today, where the allocation of Lok Sabha seats among states is based on the 1971 census, also goes against the spirit of representative democracy in a federal republic.

Consider this. The average Member of Parliament (MP) from the five southern states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh represents 1.94 million voters, while the average MP from the five populous states of Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh speaks for as many as 2.57 million.

As we approach this exercise that’s slated to begin next fiscal year, Census 2027 can only be viewed as a mixed blessing at best. On one hand, it will give the government a far more granular and informed picture of the people it governs, which is crucial from a policy perspective. On the other, it could stir discontent over regional representation and caste, both of which need to be addressed—but defy easy solutions.