Why Nitish Kumar still rules Bihar’s chessboard

Speaking candidly he insisted even those closest to Nitish don’t know what he will do the next moment. “Nitish babu maintains political decency and never launches any personal attacks on his opponents. This is the reason his friends are wary and foes are expectant. Today he will definitely have a couple of people in the opposite camp as a need may arise to align with them in the future. He believes in Chanakya’s axiom that in politics or in life, there are no permanent friends or foes".

Now that he’s ready to assume power for the 10th time, a question begs an answer. How did a man who could never muster a majority on his own end up being an irreplaceable power pivot in Bihar? How will the future students of political science view the Nitish phenomenon? Let’s go back 31 years.

It was 1994 when Nitish formed Samata Party with the help of firebrand socialist leader George Fernandes. During the 1995 state assembly elections the party declared Nitish as the chief ministerial candidate, but he could only win 7 seats by securing just 7.1% of votes. In 2000, Samata Party improved its tally to 34 seats. In that election the BJP won 67 seats. Nitish did take oath as chief minister but the government barely lasted a week.

Nitish realised that to break Lalu’s spell on people he will have to work on the ground. Nitish did exactly that before the next assembly elections.

In 2005 he undertook a state-wide Nyay Yatra. Earlier in 2003 he had formed Janata Dal United (JDU) with Fernandes. During these elections the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) formally declared him as their CM candidate. In February 2005 JDU secured 55 seats and the BJP 37, but the alliance couldn’t form the government in Patna. Ram Vilas Paswan refused to support them and the majority mark eluded them.

Under the President’s rule state elections were held again in November 2005. The JDU secured 88 and the BJP got 55 seats. With such a comfortable majority Nitish became the CM and barring a minor glitch he has been in the saddle for the last two decades. During this time he fought elections along with the Rashtriya Janata Dal and won. But as it was a mismatch to begin with, it unravelled. But in 2022 he once again became a part of Mahagathbandhan along with RJD and the Congress. However, differences arose again and the alliance couldn’t even complete its second anniversary.

But don’t be under any illusion that Nitish is a turncoat who’s driven by selfish motives to cling to power at any cost. Had that been the case he wouldn’t have resigned after a poor show of his party in 2014. At that time he promoted Jitin Ram Manjhi who ended up being Bihar’s first Dalit chief minister. Though the trust between the two couldn’t endure. Nitish may not accept it but the BJP has been his most trusted and stable ally.

Nitish knows very well that he needs control of the secretariat in Patna to bring his vision and ideals to fruition. He has proved his worth. His initiatives for Bihar’s women will remain firmly etched in the state’s history. As I’ve noted earlier, women now make up 37% of Bihar’s police force. Nitish was the first to initiate a policy to offer every family a home and every home a piped water connection. Prohibition was a tough call. It had an adverse impact on the state exchequer but Bihar’s rural women see it as a beneficial move. It’s under his rule that the quality of roads and law and order improved substantially.

He has expanded his vote bank by working for empowering the mahadalits and extremely backward communities. This stratification reflects his deep political understanding. Another interesting fact is that even after being in the saddle for two decades his “Mr Clean" image is still intact.

However, there’s still a lot he couldn’t achieve. Nationally, Bihar still ranks at the bottom in per capita income. Despite such a long stint, he hasn’t been able to lure back the industries that left the state during Lalu’s reign. A question arises as he once again prepares to take oath: will the ageing statesman be able to take effective steps to stem the tide of migration?

Yet, it’s not the time for queries but a time to congratulate.

Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan. Views are personal.