Why Taiwan May Be The Most Nervous Observer Of The Trump-Xi Summit

Last Updated:May 14, 2026, 09:40 IST

Taiwan is watching the Trump-Xi summit closely for signs of how far Washington may go in dealing with Beijing.

As US President Donald Trump meets Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Thursday, few countries are watching the summit as nervously as Taiwan.

Taiwanese officials have publicly maintained confidence in ties with Washington. But behind the scenes, concerns remain over whether Trump could offer Xi symbolic or practical concessions on Taiwan, especially as the US seeks Chinese cooperation on wider geopolitical crises, including the ongoing Iran conflict.

Under the longstanding “One China" policy, the United States acknowledges China’s position that Taiwan is part of China but has never formally recognised Beijing’s sovereignty over the self-governing island. Washington maintains unofficial but deep ties with Taipei and is legally bound under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide the island with the means to defend itself.

Yet the US has also long maintained what is known as ‘strategic ambiguity’, deliberately avoiding saying explicitly whether it would intervene militarily if China attacked Taiwan.

Why Taiwan Fears Becoming A Bargaining Chip

Much of the concern centres around Trump’s own comments before the summit. On Monday, the US President said he would discuss US arms sales to Taiwan with Xi. “I’m going to have that discussion," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “President Xi would like us not to. And I’ll have that discussion."

The remarks triggered fresh concern because Trump has not yet formally moved ahead with an arms package for Taiwan, reportedly worth around $14 billion. Beijing has consistently opposed American arms sales to the island.

Ahead of the summit, a bipartisan group of US senators urged Trump not to dilute Washington’s position. “You should make clear to Beijing that as you seek to level the economic playing field, American support for Taiwan is not up for negotiation," the senators wrote in a letter.

US officials quoted also raised concerns that Xi could seek concessions from Trump during the talks, ranging from criticism of Taiwan’s leadership to delays or softening in future arms sales.

One former senior US government official told CNN that even an implicit decision not to move ahead with a major future arms package “would send a huge message to Taipei."

That concern is rooted partly in Trump’s broader negotiating style and partly in China’s belief that it currently has leverage over Washington. Chinese sources familiar with the matter told CNN that Beijing sees the ongoing conflict involving Iran and broader global instability as potentially strengthening China’s negotiating position with the US.

For Xi, Taiwan remains one of the most sensitive and important long-term strategic issues. China’s Communist Party claims Taiwan as its territory despite never having governed the island. Xi has repeatedly described reunification with Taiwan as “unstoppable" and has refused to rule out the use of force.

Why Language After The Summit Will Matter Closely

Even if no major Taiwan-related announcement emerges from the summit, analysts say Taipei will closely study the wording and tone used by both sides afterwards. The concern is not only about what is explicitly said, but also about what may be omitted.

Analysts fear that strong language around deterrence and support could gradually be replaced with softer phrases centred on “stability," “restraint" or reducing tensions in the Taiwan Strait.

Sana Hashmi, Fellow at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation, said small wording changes could carry major strategic implications. “Trump emphasising no Taiwan independence or blaming Taiwan for provocation in Taiwan Strait would put pressure on the leadership on the Island. If Taiwan appears only briefly, that suggests deprioritising its significance for Trump," she said.

Assistant Professor at Delhi University and international relations expert Rityusha Mani Tiwary said, “In the post-summit communique, if strong deterrence language gives way to vague calls for ‘stability’ and ‘restraint,’ Taipei will read that very carefully."

Xi is also expected to strongly press China’s case on Taiwan during the summit. One source cited by CNN said Xi may try to frame Taiwan in a way similar to how Russian President Vladimir Putin has framed Ukraine, particularly because Trump has previously appeared receptive to Putin’s arguments regarding Ukraine.

China has repeatedly described Taiwan as “the biggest risk" in its relationship with the United States. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a phone call earlier this year that the United States should “honor its commitments and make the right choice, to open up new space for China-U.S. cooperation and make due efforts for world peace," according to a Chinese Foreign Ministry readout.

Rubio, meanwhile, has publicly insisted that US policy on Taiwan “remains unchanged."

Taiwan’s ‘Silicon Shield’ And Why Chips Matter So Much

Taiwan’s strategic importance goes far beyond geography.

The island produces nearly 90 per cent of the world’s most advanced semiconductors, making it central to global supply chains powering artificial intelligence, advanced electronics and defence systems.

This technological dominance is often referred to as Taiwan’s “silicon shield" — the idea that the island’s critical role in global chip production discourages major powers from allowing instability or conflict there.

But Taiwan now fears that semiconductors themselves could become part of broader US-China negotiations.

Hashmi warned there are already “visible fissures" emerging in the system. She said using semiconductor restrictions as negotiation tools could ultimately strengthen China’s position while weakening both Taiwan’s security and broader US strategic interests.

At the same time, several analysts do not believe the US would fundamentally abandon Taiwan.

Prashant Kumar Singh, Research Fellow and Coordinator at the East Asia Centre of Delhi’s Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, said Taiwan remains too strategically valuable for Washington to casually trade away. “It is too precious a bargaining chip or pressure point to be squandered for short-term tactical gains," Singh said.

Piero Tozzi, senior director for China Policy at the America First Policy Institute, also argued that Trump understands Taiwan’s strategic value. “It’s really the front line of our defense, defense of the homeland," Tozzi told CNN. “I don’t think the Taiwanese have anything to worry about."

Can Taiwan Really Depend Entirely On America?

Even while publicly projecting confidence, Taiwan is actively trying to reduce vulnerabilities.

One major focus is boosting domestic defence production, particularly drones. Taiwan is also investing in what officials describe as “whole-of-society resilience" — improving civil defence preparedness, infrastructure readiness and supply chain stability.

Still, Taiwanese officials privately acknowledge that no country can fully replace America’s role in Taiwan’s defence ecosystem.

The US remains Taiwan’s principal arms supplier and provides intelligence-sharing, surveillance cooperation and broader strategic support critical to the island’s defence planning.

Taiwan also maintains consistent military-level communication with the US Indo-Pacific Command, a channel officials view as relatively insulated from political fluctuations in Washington.

At the same time, new concerns are emerging over America’s own military readiness. CNN had reported that the US military faces a near-term risk of running low on key ammunition in the event of another major conflict.

A new analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies found that the remaining inventory of certain critical munitions may no longer be sufficient for a large-scale confrontation with an adversary like China and could take years to replenish.

Meanwhile, China continues frequent military drills around the island, steadily reinforcing concerns in Taipei about the possibility of future coercion or escalation.

There is no indication that a Chinese military operation is imminent. But for Taiwan, the larger concern surrounding the Trump-Xi summit is not a sudden abandonment by Washington.

Instead, it is the fear that American support could gradually become less firm and more conditional in a more transactional phase of US-China relations.

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