India's foodgrain stocks swell—lens on effective management

The latest data marks a strong recovery from 33.2 mt stock in 2023 and 37.65 mt in 2024, when food grain inventories had tightened. Experts attribute the sharp increase to favourable weather during the 2025 rabi season and government's aggressive procurement strategies to stabilize the domestic market.

Government data reveals a robust recovery in wheat reserves and a record-breaking accumulation of rice. Wheat reserves had hit a decade-low of 7.5 mt in April 2024, and the current stock is now at 21.79 mt, 85% higher than the year-ago level of 11.79 mt and nearly three times the operational buffer norm of 7.46 mt.

Rice reserves have also hit historic highs, with the stocks at 38.61 mt, way higher than the buffer norm of 13.58 mt.

Beyond the comfort of having robust food stock, the huge inventory situation also raises concerns around rising storage costs and potential wastage, bringing the urgency to expand distribution and export channels. The surplus has led to proposals around offloading of excess grain through open market sales and their use in ethanol production to prevent wastage in storage.

Emailed queries on the foodgrain stock situation sent to the consumer affairs, food and public distribution ministry remained unanswered until press time.

Foodgrain stock management can be well-calibrated. “These calculations are done very carefully. We have a fairly good understanding of how much damage can happen to foodgrain crops even in a worst-case scenario, and how much stock we need to keep available,” said Pronab Sen, a noted economist and former chief statistician of India.

“What has happened is that foodgrain production has remained high almost every year over the last four years. If this surplus is not managed, prices of foodgrains could crash, which is why the government steps in to procure,” said Sen. “With this stockpile, there will be no problem for us, and we will also be able to provide food assistance in case there are countries that need it.”

“The government is increasingly procuring stocks not just because it needs to maintain buffer reserves for contingencies, but also as a preventive measure to avoid a price crash,” he said.

“It is a positive sign for the nation’s food security. However, as we have a good surplus in hand, we have to be proactive in offloading stocks in the international markets to stabilize domestic wheat prices, and create space for the incoming wheat and rice harvest," said Navneet Chitlangia, president of The Roller Flour Millers Federation of India. "For this, special incentives may be given to wheat products also.”

The government is already looking at boosting wheat exports. In its latest move, on Monday, it approved an additional 2.5 million tonnes of wheat exports to support farmgate prices and manage the growing stockpile.

Rice exports also have bright prospects, industry players said. “Amid rising domestic stockpiles, there is an immense potential for boosting rice exports. Higher overseas shipments could help ease surplus pressure, stabilize prices and support farmers’ incomes,” said Satish Goel, president of the All India Rice Exporters Association (AIREA). "Proactive export measures would not just help manage excess stocks efficiently but also strengthen India’s position in the global rice market.”

On the global front, food prices are on the rise due to weather setbacks and a tense geopolitical climate leading to supply disruptions. Data released by the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) on 3 April showed that the food price index averaged 128.5 points in March, up 3 points (2.4%) from its revised February level, marking the second consecutive monthly increase.