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ARTICLE AD BOX
Summary
America’s tariffs didn’t upend its economy but failed as policy and awakened the world to its rogue behaviour. And now a war of choice threatens the globe not just with unilateral trade rules set by others, like Iran, but with US priorities bent further out of shape.
It has been a bit over a year since America sought ‘liberation’ from free trade. How did it fare?
The macro self-blow of US tariffs was milder than feared. Its economy expanded by 2.2% in 2025 with inflation averaging almost 2.7%. China-US trade decoupled a little as bilateral shipments shrank, but global merchandise flows did not slump, even if their pattern took kaleidoscopic turns.
Did ‘freedom’ from barrier-free trade revive US factories or fill its coffers?
Manufacturing didn’t budge and a big chunk of its tariff intake must be refunded after the US judiciary struck down ‘reciprocal tariffs’ this February. The locus of trade instability has shifted east since then, to the Gulf, where Iran wants to play rule-maker, its ambition lit by a war started by Israel and the US.
It’s yet another sign of how costly the past year’s apparent crash in White House respect for the rule of law could prove. If the US hikes its defence budget by 40% to $1.5 trillion, it would warp its allocation of resources and economic prospects both.
Tech advances and military muscle are linked, no doubt. But the source of US power is a far more complex story. If it keeps warping its ideals of liberty, its global influence would weaken.
English (US) ·