What Could Trump's US-Iran Deal Look Like? Five Questions Answered

Last Updated:March 23, 2026, 10:11 IST

Key Trump allies have reportedly begun laying the groundwork for possible negotiations, even as officials expect fighting to continue in the near term

In a move that has highlighted the dual-track strategy of war and diplomacy, the Donald Trump administration is exploring the contours of a potential peace deal even as the United States ramps up military pressure on Iran.

According to a report by Axios, key Trump allies have begun laying the groundwork for possible negotiations, even as officials expect fighting to continue in the near term in the US-Israel-Iran war. While the approach reflects an attempt to shape the outcome of the conflict before it fully stabilises, it also exposes deep strategic contradictions.

Here are five key questions that could explain Washington’s evolving plan:

1. Why Is US Planning Talks In The Middle Of A War?

The strategy of seeking diplomacy in the middle of an ongoing war is intentional.

As Axios reported, the Trump administration thinks that continued military pressure could bring leverage to force negotiations with Iran. The US officials are not waiting for a ceasefire to happen; rather, they are trying to bring an “endgame" in the middle of an ongoing war.

US officials have admitted that the war could go on for weeks, which shows that negotiations are not easy, especially since they are being conducted in the middle of a war.

To put it simply, the US is seeking to negotiate from a position of strength but without stopping the war.

2. Who Is Driving The Potential Deal?

Unlike other diplomatic efforts that are traditionally handled by career diplomats, this appears to be relying in large part on intermediaries.

The Axios report refers to Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff as being part of these efforts to look at possibilities in backchannel diplomacy. Both Kushner and Witkoff are part of previous efforts to engage with Iran.

This is seen as a preference for informal deal-making between leaders rather than a more formal diplomatic process.

3. What Could A US-Iran Deal Look Like?

Although there has been no formal proposal, it seems there is a general framework from discussions in the administration, according to Axios. The US demands might be:

• Limits on Iran’s nuclear activities

• Limits on Iran’s work on its missiles

• Limits on Iran’s military activities in the region

In return, Iran might be seeking:

• Lifting of sanctions

• Lifting of freezes on its assets

• Economic concessions

However, these demands are similar to those raised in previous talks, which failed, highlighting the gap in the strategy.

4. Why Might Iran Resist Negotiations?

Iran’s delay is due to strategic and trust issues.

Based on the Axios report and diplomatic analysis, Iran is expected to make the following demands:

• Ceasefire or de-escalation to precede negotiations

• Guarantees against future US withdrawal from agreements

• Recognition of Iran’s role in the region

There is also a lack of trust between the two countries, given previous failures in US-Iran agreements.

On Monday, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said negotiations with the US have ended permanently, citing betrayal since they had promised no military attacks would take place. In a video posted on X, Araghchi said, “The negotiations with the Americans are over forever… a bitter experience and betrayal after promises of no attack!"

He added, “There is no longer any room for dialogue with the Americans. They deceived us with promises of no attack, and even after achieving noticeable progress in the negotiations, they decided to attack us anyway."

The problem is that what the US may see as leverage, Iran may see as coercion.

5. Is There A Credible Pathway To Talks?

One of the largest unknowns is whether a negotiation channel exists at all.

However, Axios states that while back channels are being explored, there’s no clarity yet on who would represent Iran officially, which country would act as a mediator, and whether both sides would be willing to negotiate at the same time.

In the past, Oman has acted as a mediator in negotiations between the US and Iran. However, no such framework has been confirmed in the present.

The Big Story

The strategy of the Trump administration appears to be a high-risk balancing act of using military pressure to prompt diplomacy while keeping the option of escalation on the table.

The issue, as Axios points out, is that officials are aware of this. They understand that exiting the conflict too soon could compromise US power, while staying longer could mean greater instability.

For the time being, the US is pursuing both options simultaneously. The question of whether this will result in a breakthrough or more ambiguity will depend on whether the diplomatic process can take off before the conflict changes the landscape even more.

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